President Vladimir Putin’s one-year nuclear pledge has put the world into a holding pattern, but one that contains a glimmer of hope. The temporary commitment to the expired New START limits creates crucial breathing room for diplomacy and a chance to avert a new arms race.
The decision to circle back to the treaty’s limits, rather than accelerating into uncharted territory, was framed as a move for stability. Putin said it was justified to “maintain the status quo” in a “turbulent period,” providing a moment of calm amid the storm.
This holding pattern is conditional on both pilots maintaining a steady course. Putin was explicit that the stability of this pattern depends on the United States not making any sudden moves that “disrupt the existing balance of deterrence.”
The hope is that this time can be used to chart a new flight path. Putin suggested that this period of stability could create an atmosphere “conducive to substantive strategic dialogue,” allowing for negotiations on a new, mutually agreed-upon destination.
For twelve months, the world will circle in this pattern. It is a period of uncertainty, but also one of opportunity. Whether it ends with a safe landing or a renewed nosedive will depend on the actions of both Moscow and Washington.