The return of $100 oil is just one symptom of a conflict that is reordering global priorities and forcing governments, businesses, and investors to fundamentally reassess their assumptions about energy, security, and economic stability. The Middle East war has closed a critical maritime corridor, disrupted the energy infrastructure of multiple nations, triggered the largest emergency supply intervention in history, and raised the specter of $200-per-barrel oil. The ripple effects are being felt across every continent.
Iran struck merchant ships near the Strait of Hormuz, fuel tanks in Bahrain, tankers near Iraq’s ports, and facilities adjacent to Oman’s Mina Al Fahal terminal Thursday. Three crew members aboard the Thai vessel Mayuree Naree were reported trapped. Iraq suspended all crude exports. Oman cleared its main terminal of vessels. Bahrain issued shelter-in-place orders.
Brent crude gained 9% Thursday to briefly touch $100.29 before settling at $98. West Texas Intermediate rose 8.6% to $94.75. Oil has climbed from $60 at the year’s start to a weekly peak of $119. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since February 28. Iran’s military warned of $200 oil.
The IEA released 400 million barrels of emergency crude from 32 member nations. The US contributed 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. President Trump pledged to continue military operations. Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 per barrel.
Deutsche Bank warned of a stagflationary shock. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi lost 1.2%, and European gas gained 7.7%. The reordering of global priorities triggered by this conflict is a process that is still in its early stages.